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Once we have found a good Macro Investment Group and a worthy Sector/Style, our attention turns to finding some reasonably valued investment instruments. We use independent sources for our financial information, all material you could pay for and study yourself. We also use the trade secret Market Cycle Timer to help discover these investments. This Market Cycle Timer helps us to recognize when a specific investment instrument is undervalued or overvalued. Here we are trying to buy the undervalued investment instrument when it is in the lower portion of its ongoing, but current Macro Value Cycle.

A second part of the Market Cycle Timer was designed to take action, void of our emotion, and then trigger the actual purchases. We try to buy the target investment instrument "on sale". This can usually be done multiple times over several months, as the target investment instrument is moving through its own Value Cycle bottoming process. We often have 1 to 3 buying opportunities. We use the trade secret Market Cycle Timer, scaling into the investment instrument several times, taking advantage of the opportunities usually driven by overall market moves. We use the discipline of this scaling in approach to lower our buying risk, trying to get a better, lower net entry price. Look at this chart on Microsoft (MSFT), illustrating the two buying opportunites in July and October of 2002.

Taking Action Within the Invest Portion - We will use the terms Watch To Buy (WTB), to get your attention, so you can complete your personal homework, then Mature Watch To Buy (MWTB), and then finally BUY. The better buying time in that current Value Cycle usually occurs between the MWTB and BUY signals.

Our Market Cycle Timer scales us out about the same way when we are Harvesting our investment position. Look at this chart of Amgen Inc. (AMGN). Our Market Cycle Timer indicated a Sell in the first quarter of 2000. But, you can see there were more times you could have sold in the next 12 months at a similar price. This Market Cycle Timer certainly will make mistakes, but it can be a useful investing tool.

Taking Action Within the Harvest Portion - We will use the terms Watch To Sell (WTS) to get your attention, so you can complete your personal homework, then Mature Watch To Sell (MWTS), and then finally SELL. The better selling time in that current Value Cycle usually is indicated between the MWTS and SELL signals. To learn more, go to the Investor Value Cycle or How Does It Work?