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Investor Value Cycle
The Invest Portion
Our fundamental financial information and trade secret feedback are indicating that this is a reasonable time to start scaling into this particular investment instrument. Usually there are several opportunities to invest. By making purchases in this period, you could increase your probabilities of achieving historical returns. The risk/reward ratio is good when compared to the other three value cycle portions.
The Tend Portion
Our investments are generally looking good, but we must pay attention and Tend to our investments. If the best investor in the world chose 100 investments, some portion will be wrong. Specific mistakes will need to be removed quickly. The factors that impact an investment are always changing. Real changes or even perceived changes in earnings, interest rates, or international events can impact the markets and your investment's value.
The Harvest Portion
Our remaining well chosen investments have appreciated in value and are now becoming overvalued. The risk/reward ratio is poor. It's time to consider taking money out...time to Harvest. Sometimes we have more than one opportunity to sell. The indications are never perfect, but this is the only useful selling approach we have seen.
The Avoid Portion
Sometimes the total Macro Investment Groups should be avoided. This could simply be that the Macro Group area is just overvalued. Or it could be that the fundamentals supporting their current values are going under structural change. Or, on a comparitive basis, the risk/reward ratio has changed versus our other potential investing opportunities. Hopefully, we can find another investing possibility. If not, just stay cool in cash until another investing opportunity reveals itself.
Our Action Language
Taking Action Within the Invest Portion - This is how we will explain our "Invest" suggestions. The Watch to Buy signal (WTB) - If you are interested in this particular target investment then you should be doing your personal homework. Mature Watch to Buy (MWTB) - Based on our exhibits, the opportunity to invest is beginning to mature. Then, a BUY signal - The opportunity to invest in this current Value Cycle has likely matured. Usually the better purchase price shows up between the MWTB and BUY signals.
Taking Action Within the Harvest Portion - We will use the terms Watch To Sell (WTS), to get your attention, so you can do your homework if you want to sell, then Mature Watch To Sell (MWTS), and then finally SELL. The better selling time in the Harvest portion of the current Value Cycle usually occurs between the MWTS and SELL signals.
Look at this chart of McDonald's Corp. (MCD). Can you find the 4 stages in McDonald's Investor Value Cycle? What about the Investor Value Cycle on Intel Corporation (INTC)?
Do you want to know.... How Does It Work? Or have you reviewed our Market Cycle Timer.
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